|
Since
1967, I had used Michigan State University's central computer
to statistically analyze my master's thesis data. Therefore,
after I completed my analysis of my 1974stically analyze my master's thesis data. Therefore,
after I completed my analysis of my 1974 baseball data by hand,
I decided that I needed to use MSU's central computer to statistically
analyze my pitching data. Therefore, I recorded sixty variables
for every at bat during my 1973 and 1974 major league baseball
seasons on computer cards. I labeled my file, BASEBALLDATA.
Table 28.1:
BASEBALLDATA
| Var # |
Var Col |
Description |
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15 |
01
02
03-05
06
07
08-09
10-12
13-15
16
17-18
19
20
21
22
23 |
Year
Day/Night
Batter Number
Left/Right
Spray/Pull
Home Runs
Runs Batted In
Batting Average
Set/Windup Position
Inning Number
Away/Home
No outs/one out/two outs
Baserunner on first/No baserunner on first
Baserunner on second/No baserunner on second
Baserunner on third/No baserunner on third |
16
17
18
19
20 |
24-25
26
27
28
29 |
Heirarchy
of ball/strike count
1st pitch fastball/slider/screwball
1st pitch vertical location: High/middle/low
1st pitch horizontal location: In/middle/out
1st pitch ball/strike |
21
22
23
24
25 |
30-31
32
33
34
35 |
Heirarchy
of ball/strike count
2nd pitch fastball/slider/screwball
2nd pitch vertical location: High/middle/low
2nd pitch horizontal location: In/middle/out
2nd pitch ball/strike |
26
27
28
29
30 |
36-37
38
39
40
41 |
Heirarchy
of ball/strike count
3rd pitch fastball/slider/screwball
3rd pitch vertical location: High/middle/low
3rd pitch horizontal location: In/middle/out
3rd pitch ball/strike |
31
32
33
34
35 |
42-43
44
45
46
47 |
Heirarchy
of ball/strike count
4th pitch fastball/slider/screwball
4th pitch vertical location: High/middle/low
4th pitch horizontal location: In/middle/out
4th pitch ball/strike |
36
37
38
39
40 |
48-49
50
51
52
53 |
Heirarchy
of ball/strike count
5th pitch fastball/slider/screwball
5th pitch vertical location: High/middle/low
5th pitch horizontal location: In/middle/out
5th pitch ball/strike |
41
42
43
44
45 |
54-55
56
57
58
59 |
Heirarchy
of ball/strike count
6th pitch fastball/slider/screwball
6th pitch vertical location: High/middle/low
6th pitch horizontal location: In/middle/out
6th pitch ball/strike |
46
47
48
49
50 |
60-61
62
63
64
65 |
Heirarchy
of ball/strike count
7th pitch fastball/slider/screwball
7th pitch vertical location: High/middle/low
7th pitch horizontal location: In/middle/out
7th pitch ball/strike |
51
52
53 |
66-67
68
69-70 |
At
bat result
Type of batted ball
Batted ball field location |
54
55
56
57
58 |
71-72
73
74
75
76 |
Heirarchy
of ball/strike count
Action pitch fastball/slider/screwball
Action pitch vertical location: High/middle/low
Action pitch horizontal location: In/middle/out
Action pitch ball/strike |
59
60 |
77
78-79 |
Pitches
per at bat
Situation ranking |
a. Pitch and
Hitter Data Descriptions
To
determine how frequently and successfully I threw my fastball,
slider and screwball pitches, I cross-tabulated the seven pitch
at bat selections (Variables 17, 22, 27, 32, 37, 42 and 47) with
the seven at bat ball/strike results (Variables 20, 25, 30, 35,
40, 45 and 50).
Table 28.2:
Pitch Selections and Strike Percentages Through Seven Pitches
| |
Pitches |
Pitch Selection
Percentages |
Strike
Percentages |
| 1st |
Fastball
Slider
Screwball |
28.9% (469/1623)
23.8% (386/1623)
47.3% (768/1623) |
65.2% (305/469)
60.9% (235/386)
53.4% (410/768) |
| 2nd |
Fastball
Slider
Screwball |
42.8% (580/1365)
23.0% (311/1365)
34.2% (464/1365) |
69.3% (402/580)
67.8% (211/311)
61.0% (283/464) |
| 3rd |
Fastball
Slider
Screwball |
43.1% (452/1048)
22.5% (236/1048)
34.4% (360/1048) |
47.8% (216/452)
42.8% (101/236)
76.4% (275/360) |
| 4th |
Fastball
Slider
Screwball |
43.2% (331/766)
18.5% (142/766)
38.3% (293/766) |
66.5% (220/331)
67.6% (096/142)
64.2% (188/293) |
| 5th |
Fastball
Slider
Screwball |
43.6% (205/468)
22.3% (105/468)
33.6% (158/468) |
73.2% (150/205)
70.5% (074/105)
65.2% (103/158) |
| 6th |
Fastball
Slider
Screwball |
45.7% (106/232)
23.7% (055/232)
30.6% (071/232) |
71.7% (076/106)
78.2% (043/055)
53.5% (038/071) |
| 7th |
Fastball
Slider
Screwball |
54.8% (46/84)
19.0% (16/84)
26.2% (22/84) |
80.4% (37/46)
87.5% (14/16)
72.7% (16/22) |
| Totals |
Fastball
Slider
Screwball |
38.6% (2188/5675)
22.0% (1251/5675)
39.4% (2236/5675) |
64.3% (1406/2188)
61.9% (0774/1251)
58.7% (1313/2236) |
On
my first pitch, I selected screwballs (47.3%) more frequently
than fastballs (28.9%) or sliders (23.8%). However, I only threw
53.4% first pitch screwball strikes. On my second through seventh
pitches, I selected fastballs more frequently than sliders or
screwballs. On my third pitch, I threw only 47.8% fastball strikes
and 42.8% slider strikes, but, suddenly, I threw 76.4% screwball
strikes. On my seventh pitch, I threw 80.4% fastball strikes,
87.5% slider strikes and 72.7% screwball strikes. If I threw
these percent strikes all the time, then I would never have seven
pitch at bats. Rely on the variety of pitch selection, not location.
Challenge the strike zone with all types of pitches all the time.
For
general pitch at bats and hitter information, I cross-tabulated
at bat results (Variable 51) with pitches per at bat (Variable
59).
Table 28.3:
The Seven Pitch At Bat Results
1,556
Hitter
Results |
Pitch At Bats |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
Totals |
| At Bat % |
16.6% |
19.0% |
18.0% |
18.4% |
14.8% |
9.4% |
3.7% |
99.9% |
| Cumulative % |
16.6% |
35.6% |
53.6% |
72.0% |
86.8% |
96.2% |
99.9% |
16.6% |
| Hitters |
259 |
296 |
280 |
287 |
230 |
146 |
58 |
1,556 |
Home Runs
Triples
Doubles
Singles |
5
1
10
62 |
2
0
12
70 |
3
2
7
55 |
7
1
5
40 |
2
1
2
30 |
1
1
2
17 |
0
0
3
7 |
20
6
41
281 |
BB
IBB
HBP
Sac Bunt
Sac Fly |
0
0
0
15
2 |
0
0
1
8
3 |
0
0
2
1
3 |
20
9
1
2
2 |
35
0
0
1
0 |
38
0
0
0
0 |
13
0
0
0
0 |
106
9
4
27
10 |
| Outs |
164 |
200 |
207 |
200 |
159 |
87 |
35 |
1,052 |
K called
K swinging |
0
0 |
0
0 |
12
43 |
24
57 |
25
40 |
15
23 |
4
8 |
80
171 |
| Batting Aver |
.322 |
.296 |
.245 |
.209 |
.180 |
.194 |
.222 |
.249 |
| On Base % |
.322 |
.298 |
.250 |
.270 |
.306 |
.404 |
.397 |
.303 |
In
one through seven pitch at bats, all batters achieved on-base
percentages of .322, .298, .250, .270, .306, .404 and .397, respectively.
They completed 53.6% of their at bats within three pitches and
86.8% of their at bats within five pitches.
While
this information about all hitters combined is very interesting
and I could complete several considerable in depth analyses,
I needed to narrow my investigation to each of the four types
of hitters. I needed to learn how to have more success against
left-handed spray hitters, left-handed pull hitters, right-handed
spray hitters and right-handed pull hitters.
b. Four Hitter
Type Data Descriptions
Spray
hitters hit to all fields. Pull hitters hit only to pull fields.
For general information about the four types of hitters, I cross-tabulated
at bat results with the seven pitch at bats for the four hitter
types.
Table 28.4:
Seven Pitch At Bat Results For 514 Left-Handed Spray Hitters
514 Left:
Spray Hitter
Results |
Pitch At Bats |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
Totals |
| At Bat % |
18.2% |
18.7% |
17.9% |
17.7% |
16.5% |
8.2% |
2.7% |
99.9% |
| Cumulative % |
18.2% |
36.9% |
54.8% |
72.5% |
89.0% |
97.2% |
99.9% |
99.9% |
| Hitters |
94 |
96 |
92 |
91 |
85 |
42 |
14 |
514 |
Home Runs
Triples
Doubles
Singles |
2
0
3
21 |
1
0
3
20 |
1
1
3
17 |
2
0
2
13 |
1
0
1
9 |
1
0
1
10 |
0
0
1
2 |
8
1
14
92 |
BB
IBB
HBP
Sac Bunt
Sac Fly |
0
0
0
5
0 |
0
0
0
4
1 |
0
0
0
0
2 |
6
5
0
2
1 |
12
0
0
1
0 |
12
0
0
0
0 |
2
0
0
0
0 |
32
5
0
12
4 |
| Outs |
63 |
67 |
68 |
60 |
61 |
18 |
9 |
346 |
K called
K swinging |
0
0 |
0
0 |
5
11 |
9
14 |
8
12 |
2
3 |
0
3 |
24
45 |
| Batting Aver |
.292 |
.264 |
.244 |
.221 |
.153 |
.400 |
.250 |
.249 |
| On Base % |
.292 |
.264 |
.244 |
.277 |
.273 |
.571 |
.357 |
.298 |
In
one through seven pitch at bats, left-handed spray hitters achieved
on-base percentages of .292, .264, .244, .277, .273, .571 and
.357, respectively. They completed 54.8% of their at bats within
three pitches and 89.0% of their at bats within five pitches.
Table 28.5:
Seven Pitch At Bat Results For 187 Left-Handed Pull Hitters
187 Left:
Pull Hitter
Results |
Pitch At Bats |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
Totals |
| At Bat % |
10.7% |
14.4% |
20.9% |
20.9% |
15.5% |
13.4% |
4.2% |
100% |
| Cumulative % |
10.7% |
25.1% |
46.0% |
66.9% |
82.4% |
95.8% |
100% |
100% |
| Hitters |
20 |
27 |
39 |
39 |
29 |
25 |
8 |
187 |
Home Runs
Triples
Doubles
Singles |
0
0
1
5 |
0
0
1
6 |
0
0
3
7 |
0
0
1
7 |
1
0
0
2 |
0
0
0
1 |
0
0
0
0 |
1
0
6
28 |
BB
IBB
HBP
Sac Bunt
Sac Fly |
0
0
0
0
0 |
0
0
0
0
0 |
0
0
0
0
1 |
3
0
0
0
0 |
7
0
0
0
0 |
8
0
0
0
0 |
1
0
0
0
0 |
20
0
0
0
1 |
| Outs |
14 |
20 |
28 |
28 |
19 |
16 |
7 |
133 |
K called
K swinging |
0
0 |
0
0 |
4
7 |
4
8 |
6
4 |
3
6 |
1
2 |
18
27 |
| Batting Aver |
.300 |
.259 |
.263 |
.222 |
.136 |
.059 |
.000 |
.208 |
| On Base % |
.300 |
.259 |
.263 |
.282 |
.345 |
.360 |
.143 |
.252 |
In
one through seven pitch at bats, left-handed pull hitters achieved
on-base percentages of .300, .259, .263, .282, .345, .360 and
.143, respectively. They completed 46.0% of their at bats within
three pitches and 82.4% of their at bats within five pitches.
Table 28.6:
Seven Pitch At Bat Results For 585 Right-Handed Spray Hitters
585 Right:
Spray Hitter
Results |
Pitch At Bats |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
Totals |
| At Bat % |
17.6% |
21.7% |
16.6% |
18.3% |
13.0% |
9.6% |
3.2% |
100% |
| Cumulative % |
17.6% |
39.3% |
55.9% |
74.2% |
87.2% |
96.8% |
100% |
100% |
| Hitters |
103 |
127 |
97 |
107 |
76 |
56 |
19 |
585 |
Home Runs
Triples
Doubles
Singles |
2
1
6
22 |
0
0
6
35 |
1
0
1
24 |
3
0
2
16 |
0
1
1
16 |
0
1
1
4 |
0
0
2
4 |
6
3
19
121 |
BB
IBB
HBP
Sac Bunt
Sac Fly |
0
0
0
10
1 |
0
0
1
2
1 |
0
0
2
0
0 |
10
3
1
0
1 |
10
0
0
0
0 |
12
0
0
0
0 |
3
0
0
0
0 |
35
3
4
12
3 |
| Outs |
61 |
82 |
69 |
71 |
48 |
38 |
10 |
382 |
K called
K swinging |
0
0 |
0
0 |
2
15 |
9
18 |
7
15 |
5
8 |
0
1 |
23
57 |
| Batting Aver |
.337 |
.333 |
.274 |
.228 |
.273 |
.136 |
.375 |
.281 |
| On Base % |
.337 |
.338 |
.289 |
.311 |
.368 |
.273 |
.474 |
.330 |
In
one through seven pitch at bats, right-handed spray hitters achieved
on-base percentages of .337, .338, .289, .311, .368, .273 and
.474, respectively. They completed 55.9% of their at bats within
three pitches and 87.2% of their at bats within five pitches.
Table 28.7:
Seven Pitch At Bat Results For 270 Right-Handed Pull Hitters
270 Right:
Pull Hitter
Results |
Pitch At Bats |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
Totals |
| At Bat % |
15.6% |
17.0% |
19.3% |
18.5% |
14.8% |
8.5% |
6.3% |
100% |
| Cumulative % |
15.6% |
32.6% |
51.9% |
70.4% |
85.2% |
93.7% |
100% |
100% |
| Hitters |
42 |
46 |
52 |
50 |
40 |
23 |
17 |
270 |
Home Runs
Triples
Doubles
Singles |
1
0
0
14 |
1
0
2
9 |
1
1
0
7 |
2
1
0
4 |
0
0
0
3 |
0
0
0
2 |
0
0
0
1 |
5
2
2
40 |
BB
IBB
HBP
Sac Bunt
Sac Fly |
0
0
0
0
1 |
0
0
0
2
1 |
0
0
0
1
0 |
1
1
0
0
0 |
6
0
0
0
0 |
6
0
0
0
0 |
7
0
0
0
0 |
21
1
0
3
2 |
| Outs |
26 |
31 |
42 |
41 |
31 |
15 |
9 |
194 |
K called
K swinging |
0
0 |
0
0 |
3
10 |
2
17 |
4
9 |
5
6 |
3
2 |
17
44 |
| Batting Aver |
.366 |
.279 |
.176 |
.146 |
.088 |
.118 |
.100 |
.202 |
| On Base % |
.366 |
.279 |
.176 |
.163 |
.225 |
.348 |
.471 |
.268 |
In
one through seven pitch at bats, right-handed pull hitters achieved
on-base percentages of .366, .279, .176, .163, .225, .348 and
.471, respectively. They completed 51.9% of their at bats within
three pitches and 85.2% of their at bats within five pitches.
c. Comparing
the Four Types of Hitters
Table 28.8:
Seven Pitch At Bat On-Base % For the Four Hitter Types
| Hitters |
1 Pitch |
2 Pitch |
3 Pitch |
4 Pitch |
5 Pitch |
6 Pitch |
7 Pitch |
| LHSH |
.292 |
.264 |
.244 |
.277 |
.273 |
.571 |
.357 |
| LHPH |
.300 |
.259 |
.263 |
.282 |
.345 |
.360 |
.143 |
| RHSH |
.337 |
.338 |
.289 |
.311 |
.368 |
.273 |
.474 |
| RHPH |
.366 |
.279 |
.176 |
.163 |
.225 |
.348 |
.471 |
Right-handed
pull hitters batted .366 against me in one pitch at bats. I need
to throw either better quality or new types of pitches on my
first pitches to them. Right-handed spray hitters reached base
over .300 percent of the time in one, two, four, five and seven
pitch at bats against me. Clearly, I need new types of pitches
with which to get right-handed spray hitters out. Except for
seven pitch at bats against left-handed pull hitters, all hitters
reached base against me well over .350 percent of the time in
six and seven pitch at bats. I need to end all at bats within
five pitches.
Left-handed
spray hitters completed 54.8% of their at bats within three pitches
and 89.0% of their at bats within five pitches. They completed
46.0% of their at bats within three pitches and 82.4% of their
at bats within five pitches. Right-handed spray hitters completed
55.9% of their at bats within three pitches and 87.2% of their
at bats within five pitches. Right-handed pull hitters completed
51.9% of their at bats within three pitches and 85.2% of their
at bats within five pitches. Left-handed pull hitters force me
into more pitches per at bat.
I
require more specific information. Therefore, I asked the computer
to examine what pitches I throw on one pitch at bats and their
results, what pitches I throw on two pitch at bats and their
results and so on. |